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Introduction
Chinas economy has undergone rapid growth over the past few decades, with its GDP almost tripling from 2000 to 2007 (World Bank Staff, GDP of China 2018). Urbanization the migration of people from rural to urban areas is [central] to driving economic growth (Montgomery 2008). In 2005, urbanization was responsible for 10.98% of the economic growth in China (Song et al. 2018). Because urban residents contribute 6.59 times more to the economy than rural residents (Song et al. 2018), moving rural residents to urban areas allows them to become much more economically productive. The economic growth created by urbanization is then invested into improving urban infrastructure, which allows for further urbanization as cities are able to support more residents (Bai et al. 2012). Therefore, urbanization and economic growth create a mutually beneficial self-reinforcing cycle. Sustaining this cycle is crucial to China as economic growth has brought great benefits to China by lifting more than 800 million people out of poverty (Morrison 2019) and by helping to improve the overall quality of life for all citizens (Department for International Development 2008).
However, data from the World Bank shows that urbanization rates have been on the decline (World Bank Staff, Urban Population Growth in China 2018), which threatens the urbanization aspect of the cycle. This decline has been, in large part, due to the reluctance of rural residents to migrate to urban areas (Chen et al. 2016). The economic growth aspect of the cycle is also being threatened by environmental damage created by urbanization. Urbanization influences the issue of climate change (Montgomery 2008), which has harmed Chinas economy (Han et al. 1995) and has the potential to reverse the possible economic benefits of increased urbanization. This would also reduce the ability of cities to accommodate more people as funding for urban infrastructure improvement is limited, further reducing urbanization rates. These issues lead us to the question, is the current cycle of urbanization and economic growth in China sustainable? Given the slowing urbanization rates created by rural residents reluctance to migrate and the economic drawbacks of environmental damage, it is clear that the cycle in its current state is not sustainable.
Sustainability of Urbanization Rates
In order to encourage urbanization, China introduced reforms to the hukou system during the early 2000s. Prior to these reforms, it was very difficult for rural hukou holders to change their hukou status to urban. Because of this, rural residents found it difficult to migrate to urban areas since they would not be given urban hukou benefits, which are extremely helpful to migrants. However, with the reforms, rural hukou holders can change their hukou status much more easily, which gives them access to urban hukou benefits that make their lives much easier after they migrate (Zhan 2017). While on the surface it may seem these reforms should be able to increase urbanization rates, data from the World Bank shows that they are not enough. Although urbanization rates increased initially when these policies were implemented, such rates have been on the decline ever since (World Bank Staff, Urban Population Growth in China 2018), threatening the urbanization and economic growth cycle. The declining rates make it clear that the current method for encouraging urbanization is not enough to sustain the urbanization aspect of the cycle.
This decline in urbanization rates is due to the fact that many rural residents are still hesitant to migrate to urban areas despite the reforms. A study conducted by Chuanbo Chen finds that only 21.8% of rural hukou holders want to convert their rural hukou to an urban one (Chen et al. 2016). One possible explanation for the lack of interest in migration is that by moving to urban areas, rural migrants put themselves at risk financially, since it is very difficult for migrants to obtain housing (Huang 2014) and income higher than what they have in rural areas (Chen et al. 2016). A study conducted by Xu Huang finds that families that are more educated are much more likely to gain housing (Huang 2014) and Chens study also finds that rural-to-urban migrants are only able to increase their income if they have a good educational background (Chen et al. 2016). These studies show that both housing and income, which are two major factors crucial to migrants success, are dependent upon a rural citizens educational background. However, research by Stanfords REAP program finds that in the rural areas of Shaanxi province, only 5% of students attend college, as compared to 70% of urban students (Stanford REAP), which shows that rural residents are not nearly as educated as urban residents. Even if rural-to-urban migrants are able to convert to an urban hukou due to Chinas reforms, their lack of education is a barrier that makes it difficult for them to settle. From this, it is clear that the lack of rural education has contributed greatly to the ineffectiveness of hukou reform which then threatens urbanization rates.
Improving Rural Education
In order to resolve this issue, rural education needs to be improved in order to better prepare rural residents to migrate to urban areas. A study conducted by Dandan Zhang finds that rural students are put at an educational disadvantage due to the fact that they often come from low-income families, which makes it difficult for them to pay for supplemental education. They are also more likely to have poor living conditions which further detracts from their education (Zhang 2015). These factors make it clear that rural students are a disadvantaged group due to unfavorable circumstances. This suggests an affirmative action approach, where disadvantaged groups are given an advantage for college admissions. Affirmative action has been shown to be extremely effective in the US for enabling historically disadvantaged groups to gain better college education (Fischer 2007). China has also already implemented affirmative action policies for minority racial groups that are disadvantaged due to imbalanced educational opportunities by adding points to their college exam scores, which determine which colleges they get admitted to (Sautman 1998). By expanding current affirmative action policies in China to encompass rural students, the government can improve rural access to a good college education. This would increase urbanization rates as rural residents will become more prepared to migrate to urban areas and be able to find higher-paying jobs and housing there, thus sustaining the urbanization aspect of the cycle.
However, one drawback of these affirmative action policies is that public perception of such policies is extremely negative. Over the past year, many affirmative action policies in China have been reduced or removed due to criticism from citizens (Lau 2019). Because of this, it is clear that public perception of affirmative action needs to be improved in order for such policies to be successful. The disapproval of affirmative action stems from the fact that many believe those who benefited from affirmative action are receiving benefits unfairly (Lau 2019). In order to resolve this issue for rural-based affirmative action, the Chinese government needs to educate the public about the hardships faced by rural students in order to justify the benefits that they receive. This way, the public can gain an understanding of the reasoning behind affirmative action policies, allowing affirmative action policies to be effectively implemented with the support of the public.
Environmental Sustainability
Although improving rural education would increase urbanization rates, thereby helping to sustain the urbanization and economic growth cycle, the issue of environmental sustainability still remains. Such an increase in urbanization negatively impacts the environment and threatens to minimize the possible economic benefits of urbanization (Song et al. 2018). One of the main causes of urbanizations harm to the environment is that urban dwellers utilize much more energy than rural residents. A study conducted by Nina Khanna finds that urban citizens use 1.6 times as much energy as rural citizens (Khanna et al. 2016). Research by Yin Ming, then finds that the majority of this energy is generated by coal (Ming 2014). The problem with this is that coal produces high amounts of carbon dioxide, which is a greenhouse gas (Ming 2014). In her speech to the United Nations, Margaret Thatcher talks about how greenhouse gases negatively impact the environment as they trap heat and contribute to global warming (Thatcher 1989). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), then finds that global warming contributes to rising sea levels (IPCC 2018). Rising sea levels, in turn, put China in a vulnerable position as it has many coastal cities that would be negatively impacted by such changes. A study by Mukang Han finds that the agriculture industries in such coastal areas account for 50% of Chinas gross national product. Higher sea levels negatively impact such industries as they increase the likelihood that salt water contaminates freshwater, which makes it difficult to grow crops and therefore would negatively impact Chinas economy (Han et al. 1995). This forces us to consider the possibility that the possible economic growth created by urbanization would be stymied by rising sea levels which are produced by global warming, which is contributed to by the increasing coal usage from the higher energy demand created by urbanization. Because economic growth is necessary for more urbanization to occur since cities need resources to improve their infrastructure in order to be able to accommodate more people (Bai et al. 2012), reductions in economic growth would limit urbanization rates. This would minimize the effectiveness of affirmative action policies as while such policies would prepare rural residents to migrate to urban areas, such migration would be difficult if the city does not have the financial resources and infrastructure to support them. Therefore, the issue of increasing demand for energy has led to reductions in both the urbanization and economic growth aspects of the cycle and must be addressed in order for the cycle to be sustainable.
Nuclear Energy
In order to solve this issue, China is pursuing alternative methods for energy generation. Currently, nuclear energy, which produces minimal amounts of greenhouse gases, only accounts for 1% of Chinas total energy generation as compared to the 9% average for the world (Ming 2014). This suggests that nuclear energy is an important resource that China could take advantage of. Although China is currently increasing the number of nuclear power plants, they create a lot of depleted uranium waste (Forrest 2017). A study conducted by Robert Forrest finds that the amount of depleted uranium in China is projected to drastically increase in the next decade (Forrest 2017). Terrapower, the company that created the Traveling Wave Reactor (TWR), offers another solution that utilizes this waste to create energy. As opposed to conventional nuclear reactors, the TWR is able to take in depleted uranium and generate power from it (Hejzlar et al. 2013). The increase in depleted uranium would provide such reactors with vast amounts of fuel and would allow for more efficient use of uranium resources by reducing depleted uranium waste. This offers an effective alternative to coal for generating electricity in China that would mitigate the negative environmental consequences of urbanization, thereby allowing urbanization to effectively improve economic growth which would sustain the urbanization and economic growth cycle.
However, the main limitation of the TWR is that the research behind it has not been fully completed yet. Originally, Terrapower, a US-based company, was working with the Chinese government to create their nuclear reactor but they had to stop after it became infeasible due to restrictions on US companies created by a trade war between China and the US (Reuters 2019). In order for the technology behind the TWR to be successful, the US and Chinese governments need to work together to research the technology behind the TWR so that both countries are able to utilize the technology once it is complete, creating a win-win situation that would incentivize the US to cooperate.
Conclusion
Because of the hesitancy of rural residents to migrate to urban areas and the negative environmental impacts of urbanization, it is clear that the urbanization and economic growth cycle is not sustainable in its current state. In order for the cycle to be sustainable, a two-pronged approach must be taken. Firstly, affirmative action policies that also benefit rural students must be implemented so that rural students can get the skills they need to succeed in urban society. By doing this, rural residents will become more motivated to migrate to urban areas which in turn sustains urbanization rates. The reasoning behind such policies also needs to be made clear to the public to garner their support. Secondly, in order to mitigate the negative environmental impacts, the technology behind the TWR created by Terrapower should be further researched in a joint collaboration between the US and China so that the electricity needed to support urbanization can be produced in an environmentally friendly manner. By mitigating the negative environmental impacts of urbanization, economic growth is no longer reduced by damage to the environment. If China carries out these two solutions, both the urbanization and economic growth aspects of the cycle would be drastically improved, which would allow for Chinas economy to grow unhindered, reducing poverty and improving the well-being of all its citizens.
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